05:45
Tieng Anh Vui
THE generals who have been running Thailand since their coup in May are eager to carry on doing so. Martial law, they now say, will stay in place “indefinitely”. Elections will be held, but not until early 2016—maybe. But keeping control of the country is not easy. Thailand’s economy is stagnating and opponents of military rule remain legion. Intrigue relating to the royal family, an institution always central to Thai politics, is complicating the officers’ calculations. On December 5th the ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej turns 87. His son and chosen successor is beginning to assert himself.
At least on the surface, the generals appear to be enjoying themselves. Most of them were scarcely known among ordinary citizens before the coup; now they are celebrities. The coup leader and prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, who retired as army chief in October, has a weekly television show: a rambling monologue called “Returning Happiness to the People”, which runs for about an hour. He may not be popular in the West, but he is no pariah. At multi-nation summits in Italy, Myanmar and China he has rubbed shoulders with world leaders. Since late last month Mr Prayuth has paid visits to Malaysia, Vietnam and Laos; all was smiles.
At home, however, there is little reason for cheer. The military government has been struggling to revive the economy. This year it is likely to grow by only about 1%, far less than in 2013 (see chart). Consumer spending has recovered somewhat since the coup. But investment, tourism, exports and industrial output are all down.
The generals, many now sporting ministerial titles, have not been helping. They have delegated economic policy to bureaucrats without giving them any clear sense of direction. The result is policy confusion. Mr Prayuth has been telling foreign investors that Thailand is open for business, but the bureaucrats have been sending a different message. In early November they dusted off plans to restrict foreign ownership and control of companies. The government has since rowed back.
In its efforts to reshape Thailand’s troubled politics, the junta has been far busier. But the results have been no more encouraging. The junta has appointed establishment figures to write a new constitution by September. The main author, worryingly, says the alignment of the planet Jupiter will ensure that the draft they produce will have “fairness and wisdom”. His superiors, more ominously, say the aim of their renewed military intervention was to erase the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra, elder brother of Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister thrown out in the coup in May. Mr Thaksin was himself booted out as prime minister by a coup in 2006 but remains a powerful force from his self-imposed exile in Dubai.
Supporters of Mr Thaksin have won every election since 2001. This suggests the generals will try to manipulate polls to stop parties loyal to him from regaining power. The new constitution is likely to prescribe a partially appointed lower house of parliament and a fully appointed senate. Mr Thaksin is rumoured to be less outraged about this than might be expected. The army has cracked down on his red-shirted supporters, but the red shirts have avoided sweeping recriminations by lying low. Unlike the rival pro-establishment Democrat Party, they have displayed remarkable unity.
Mr Thaksin can wait: he is on good terms with the king’s chosen successor, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, a capricious man of a very different cut from his staid father. Members of the conservative elite loathe him. They have long prayed that his sister, Princess Sirindhorn, might ascend the throne. Any chance of this has almost vanished. The crown prince is showing signs of putting his house in order in readiness for the throne. This was evident on December 1st when it was announced that members of the family of his estranged wife, Princess Srirasmi (see pictured), who are being targeted in an anti-corruption drive, had been stripped of their royal titles.
See our study of Thailand's volatile politics in graphics The generals do not want the public speculating about the monarchy, a vital source of their legitimacy. Mr Prayuth is a royalist who has vowed to root out critics of the monarchy. Lèse-majesté cases have increased. On November 4th a court sentenced a student to more than two years in jail for a Facebook posting that the judges said had insulted the monarchy. This month a military court has approved an arrest warrant for a Thai billionaire businessman accused, among other things, of citing the monarchy to make money.
But palace-watchers sense a change that could provide a way out of Thailand’s political gloom. Prem Tinsulanonda, who is head of the king’s Privy Council, is seen to have lost sway in royal circles. Mr Prem, who is 94, leads an ultra-royalist faction of Thai society that disapproves of both the crown prince and Mr Thaksin. This camp fears that the next king might conspire with Mr Thaksin to launch a radical overhaul of the monarchy.
Mr Prem’s likely successor as a linchpin of Thai politics, Prawit Wongsuwan, is a mentor to Mr Prayuth who is now serving as defence minister. But Mr Prawit also served as army chief under Mr Thaksin. One of Mr Thaksin’s foot soldiers says the two sides are in “constant conversation”. Could Mr Prawit be a go-between between Mr Thaksin’s side and the generals? Optimists believe the generals might just have it in them to compromise: the army could claim it had played its chosen role as the only capable caretaker of a broken system. But in the opaque world of palace politics, bets would be unwise.
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