08:32
Tieng Anh Vui
JUST 18 months after Tony Abbott became Australia’s prime minister, pundits are writing his political obituary. A string of gaffes, disastrous polls and bitter divisions within his conservative Liberal Party sparked a motion last month to open his leadership to a party ballot. He survived, just. But the drama continues to feed a febrile mood in Canberra, the capital. On March 2nd an opinion poll gave Mr Abbott some breathing space. For how long is another matter.
The Ipsos poll showed the Liberals and their coalition partner, the National Party, trailing the opposition Labor Party by only two percentage points, after including second-preference votes. A month earlier the government had lagged by eight points. Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating edged up slightly, though only to a measly 32%. His allies jumped to defend him. Andrew Robb, the minister for trade and investment, says that in the poll the voters “have spoken” and that the push by colleagues to topple the prime minister is “dying”.
That may be optimistic. Asked who they would like to lead the Liberals, 39% of voters chose Malcolm Turnbull, the communications minister, and 24% chose Julie Bishop, the foreign minister. Just 19% plumped for Mr Abbott. Some pollsters read the rise in positive sentiment towards the government as a sign that some voters expect to see Mr Turnbull in charge before the next election, due in 2016.
Backed by the Liberals’ conservative wing, Mr Abbott unseated the centrist Mr Turnbull as party leader in 2009. In the latest jostling, Mr Turnbull has taken a steady approach that voters seem to prefer to Mr Abbott’s street-fighting style. A telling clash came over a recent report by Australia’s Human Rights Commission that criticised both Labor and coalition governments for locking child asylum-seekers in detention centres. Mr Abbott responded by attacking the commission’s boss, Gillian Triggs. Mr Turnbull defended Ms Triggs as a “very distinguished” legal scholar, adding that the main issue “is the children”.
Ordinary Australians have never really taken to Mr Abbott. But he also has problems in his cabinet. His colleagues resent the power wielded by his chief of staff, Peta Credlin. She happens to be married to the Liberal Party’s director, Brian Loughnane. A leaked memo from the party treasurer to Liberal party officials fretted about a potential conflict of interest. The press have made much of the leak as an apparent attempt to damage Mr Abbott. He dismissed it as a storm in a teacup.
After the respite produced by the latest poll, Mr Abbott issued a flurry of policy announcements. He pledged 300 more Australian troops for Iraq, on top of 170 special forces there now, to serve with about 100 New Zealand soldiers training the Iraqi army. A much-ballyhooed report was published about the pressure on budgets that can be expected from an ageing population over the next 40 years. And the prime minister finally dropped one of the most unpopular measures in his government’s first budget last year: a plan to charge those using public health insurance for visiting doctors.
Mr Robb says the Liberals will now give Mr Abbott “clear air” to carry on as leader until the next budget, due in May, “and beyond”. Other colleagues are less happy with that prospect, given that the first budget was bungled between Mr Abbott and his treasurer, Joe Hockey. Moreover, a state election is due on March 28th in New South Wales, Mr Abbott’s home state, which is currently governed by the Liberals. Recent defeats of one-term conservative state governments in Victoria and Queensland have rocked the Liberals. If Mike Baird, the popular state premier, does badly, the “Abbott effect” could take most of the blame.
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