Walt Whitman

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"Henceforth I ask not good fortune. I myself am good fortune."

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Trey Parker and Matt Stone

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"I love life...Yeah, I'm sad, but at the same time, I'm really happy that something could make me feel that sad. It's like...It makes me feel alive, you know. It makes me feel human. The only way I could feel this sad now is if I felt something really good before. So I have to take the bad with the good. So I guess what I'm feeling is like a beautiful sadness."

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Princess Elizabeth Asquith Bibesco

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"Blessed are those who can give without remembering, and take without forgetting."

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Edmund Burke

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"Never despair; but if you do, work on in despair."

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Henry James

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"Summer afternoon-summer afternoon; to me those have always been the two most beautiful words in the English language."

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Erica Jong

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"Love is everything it's cracked up to be�It really is worth fighting for, being brave for, risking everything for."

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Mary Catherine Bateson

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"The family is changing not disappearing. We have to broaden our understanding of it, look for the new metaphors."

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Euripides

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"Do not consider painful what is good for you."

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John Scalzi

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"If the universe is bigger and stranger than I can imagine, it's best to meet it with an empty bladder."

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Sir Colin Marshall

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"The customer doesn't expect everything will go right all the time; the big test is what you do when things go wrong."

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Kay Ryan

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"Who would have guessed it possible that waiting is sustainable. A place with its own harvest."

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Evelyn Rodriguez

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"I believe our longing for an innate harmony runs deeper than our longing for righteousness."

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Such quantities of sand

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

EVEN on a quiet Sunday morning, a steady stream of lorries trundles along the broad, pristine and otherwise deserted streets of Punggol Timur, an island of reclaimed land in the north-east of Singapore. They empty their loads into neat rows of white, yellow and grey mounds where the country stockpiles a vital raw material: sand. Building industries around the world depend on sand. But Singapore’s need is especially acute, as it builds not just upward but outward, adding territory by filling in the sea—with sand. And in Asia it is far from alone. The whole region has a passion for land reclamation that has long delighted property developers. But it has worried environmentalists. And it brings cross-border political and legal complications.

For Singapore, territorial expansion has been an essential part of economic growth. Since independence in 1965 the country has expanded by 22%, from 58,000 hectares (224.5 square miles) to 71,000 hectares. The government expects to need another 5,600 hectares by 2030. The sand stockpiles are to safeguard supplies. Singapore long ago ran out of its own and became, according to a report published last year by the United Nations Environment Programme, by far the largest importer of sand worldwide and, per person, the world’s biggest user. But, one by one, regional suppliers have imposed export bans: Malaysia in 1997, Indonesia ten years later, Cambodia in 2009 and then Vietnam. Myanmar also faces pressure to call a halt. Exporting countries are alarmed at the environmental consequences of massive dredging. And nationalists resent the sale of even a grain of territory.

The area of land Singapore has taken from the sea is dwarfed by reclamation elsewhere—in Japan and China, for example. Since the 19th century, Japan has reclaimed 25,000 hectares in Tokyo Bay alone. For a planned new city near Shanghai, Nanhui, more than 13,000 hectares have been reclaimed. In Hong Kong, as Victoria harbour has been filled, the island has moved closer to mainland China geographically if not politically.

Singapore is unusual both in being so small that such a large proportion of its territory is man-made, and in being so close to its maritime neighbours, Malaysia and Indonesia. Not only has it faced criticism from environmental groups because of the impact its sand purchases have had in the exporting countries, in 2003 it also faced a legal challenge under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) from Malaysia over land-reclamation projects at either end of the Johor Strait that separates the two countries. Malaysia alleged the work was impinging on its sovereignty, harming the environment and threatening the livelihoods of some of its fishermen.

After arbitration, the dispute was settled amicably enough. But now roles are reversed: Singapore is concerned about two big Malaysian reclamation projects in the Johor Strait. One, Forest City, would reclaim land to create four linked islands in the strait. It sounds like a fantasy—virtually an entire new city of gleaming skyscrapers and verdant lawns. But since its shareholders are a big Chinese concern and the Sultan of Johor, the head of the royal family in the Malaysian state of Johor, it is taken seriously. After Singaporean protests, reclamation work stopped last year. But in January it was reported that the project had been approved by the Malaysian government, albeit scaled down considerably. Singapore’s government says it is still waiting to hear this officially.

International law is likely to be invoked again over island-expansion elsewhere in Asia. Japan argues that its remote southern outcrop of Okinotorishima is an island, which, under UNCLOS, would entitle it to “territorial waters” within a 12-nautical-mile (22km) radius, and a 200-mile “Exclusive Economic Zone” (EEZ). China argues it is not an island at all but a rock, incapable of sustaining human habitation, and so, under UNCLOS, commands only territorial waters, not an EEZ. The argument is complicated by Japan’s efforts to make the island grow by using star sand, the shells of a tiny single-celled organism found near coral reefs in Japan’s south. Scientists have learned how to grow this artificially, and the government hopes thereby to strengthen Okinotorishima’s claim to island status. Even if they managed this scientific feat, it might not pass legal muster with UNCLOS. Rocks and islands must be “naturally formed”. So can rocks be transformed into islands through man-made sand?

The law is explicit that ground that is submerged at high tide—known as “low-tide elevations”—commands neither territorial waters nor EEZs, and cannot be built up into “rocks”. This is an important issue in the complex overlapping territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where China is reclaiming land in contested areas. In a submission to an UNCLOS tribunal, the Philippines has asked that three features China is developing be categorised as “low-tide elevations” and three as “rocks”.

You are a rock, I am an island

China may hope that by filling in the sea around rocks of all sorts it can upgrade their legal status. After all, once the work is done, it would be hard to prove where the original feature began and ended. More likely, however, China simply sees merit in the old saw that possession is nine-tenths of the law. Building on these features offers practical benefits for Chinese coastguards, fishermen and the navy and air force—and it bolsters China’s territorial claim with an enhanced physical presence.

China is vague about what its claim is. Is it based on land features and the waters that accrue to them under UNCLOS? Or does it, following historic maps that show a “nine-dash line” round the edge of the sea (see map), also assert sovereignty over the water itself? In this sea of vagueness, China’s reclamation work offers practical and symbolic benefits. It also points to a rarely cited reason why the South China Sea matters. Oil experts now often cast doubt on the sea’s purported wealth of hydrocarbons. It does, however, contain substantial quantities of sand.

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In a sling

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

Nasheed: down but not yet out

HIS arm wrapped in a makeshift sling symbolised the bruised state of Maldivian democracy. Mohamed Nasheed, a former president, was injured on February 23rd as police dragged him to court for a trial on charges of terrorism. The case is a blatantly political effort against the popular opposition leader.

The charges concern Mr Nasheed’s decision as president three years ago to seek the detention of a troublesome judge. Prosecutors call that an effort to spread terror and say Mr Nasheed should spend up to 15 years behind bars. This looks bizarre. In fact Mr Nasheed himself became the only obvious victim of the fracas over the judge, when threats by security forces got him to quit in 2012. It was, in effect, a coup.

A powerful clique, including the judiciary, looks out to hobble Mr Nasheed, who was the Maldives’ first ever elected president and remains a popular, liberal figure. In 2013, when he took a big early lead in new presidential elections, judges repeatedly postponed subsequent voting, as violence simmered. Eventually Mr Nasheed narrowly lost and conceded.

The Maldives promotes itself as a haven for tourists. Locals see its unhappier side: sullen, conservative Islamists and mafia-like gangs that prosper by smuggling heroin and alcohol. For three decades a dictator presided: Maumoon Abdul Gayoom locked up Mr Nasheed a score of times. Now the former dictator’s half-brother, Abdulla Yameen, fronts the government. Jailing Mr Nasheed smacks of the old dictator’s methods.

Why risk making a martyr of him? The government is jittery, and turning on opponents is its knee-jerk response. Mohamed Nazim, defence minister until recently, has also been arrested, accused of plotting a coup. In December two Supreme Court judges were sacked.

Opposition is coalescing. Mr Nasheed’s party and a former rival have recently started working together. Nightly street protests take place in Male, the capital. A big one is due on February 27th. Public anger lingers over the abduction, perhaps murder, of a young journalist last August.

An MP in Mr Nasheed’s party, Eva Abdulla, says that the president is losing his grip. She calls those in office a “gang of thugs”—one minister led a mob of stick-wielding men through Male. In the long run, she thinks, the harassment will only strengthen the democratic opposition. Foreign criticism gets louder, and a planned visit next month by India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, looks in doubt. Mr Yameen just wants to hang on, and is turning to other friends—he planned to fly to Pakistan this week. The long run can wait.

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Spring release

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

Not quite Chol Pass, but it’s an improvement

IN A fast-changing region, one thing has long been a constant: the utter disregard that the mafia dynasty ruling North Korea evinces for the welfare of ordinary people. So growing evidence of liberalising reforms in North Korea is tantalising.

“Reform” remains a taboo word in the North. But new measures in the countryside appear to sanction people farming for the market rather than for the state. It represents a tacit abandonment of state collectives in favour of family farming, and seems already to have had an effect. For the first time in decades, North Korea grew nearly enough to feed itself last year. Thanks to better harvests, the North Korean economy could grow by 7.5% this year, compared with annual growth of little more than 1% for a decade, reckons the Hyundai Research Institute, a think-tank in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. Asia’s basket case could prove to be its fastest-growing economy.

Caveats abound. North Korea divulges little useful data, and last year the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) was not allowed in to conduct field checks. Many homes still have too little to eat—North Koreans on average consume a little over half the number of calories of their rich brethren in South Korea (for other comparisons, see chart). Still, anecdotal evidence suggests that change in this benighted country is under way.

The agricultural experiment seems to have been devised in secret after Kim Jong Un came to power just over three years ago following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. It was set in motion from 2013. Initially, it allowed groups of about a dozen labourers to register as agricultural work teams, effectively reorganising the big socialist collectives that have been a feature of North Korean agriculture since the 1950s. Farmers were also allowed to retain 30% of a new quota on production—a much bigger share than before. In addition, they could keep (ie, sell on the market) any excess harvest above the quota. Previously any surplus would have gone to the state.

Under a plan referred to as the May 30th measures, those teams were shrunk again last year, to the size of a typical family, while their share of the quota was enlarged to 60%. Even the permitted size of families’ kitchen gardens, which are far more productive patches than land tilled for the state, have been expanded dramatically, from 100 square metres to 3,300 square metres. For Andrei Lankov, a longtime watcher of North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul, the new measures, a quasi-privatisation of state land, are nothing short of revolutionary.

A second area of experimentation, in state industry, is equally striking. Under the May measures, state factory managers may appoint their own employees, set workers’ salaries, buy raw materials on the market and sell part of their production there too. Like farmers, managers will need to pay their dues to the state. Yet, says Mr Lankov, that is not so different from paying corporate taxes in a capitalist economy.

The regime is also promoting special economic zones (SEZs) with gusto, thanks to a new law on them. Andray Abrahamian of Choson Exchange, a non-profit group that organises business workshops in North Korea, describes a “palpable energy and excitement” among officials in charge of SEZs.

The oldest zone is the export-processing hub of Rason, in the north-east of the country near the borders with Russia and China. It was set up in 1991 and languished for years. But recent development has been swift. Chinese firms have paved roads linking its port to the Chinese border. Last July a new port terminal, linked to a freight railway to Russia, was launched. At a recent forum in Seoul on doing business in North Korea, Mark Kim, a Korean-American who operates a shoe factory in Rason, said his football boots were “selling like hot cakes” in the North (though he has yet to make a profit). Rason has also become the first place in North Korea where you are allowed to own your home.

The government has announced a further 19 SEZs since 2013, small hubs of between two and four square kilometres for everything from tourism (Chinese occasionally holiday in the North) and software development, to fertiliser- and rice-production. Nearly every North Korean city now has one or two zones (though, Mr Abrahamian says, they remain “underfunded and underconnected”).

Reforms have been announced before, in 2002. Aiming to motivate labourers by aligning state and market prices, Kim Jong Il declared that subsidies to state-owned firms would be withdrawn, while farmers could sell any extra produce in small-scale markets. Yet by 2005 these measures had been rolled back. This time round, comparisons to China’s economic lift-off from the late 1970s are being made more readily. Though his father died peacefully in his bed, Kim Jong Un may think his only chance of survival is change. Some analysts argue that he shows far more desire to improve livelihoods than his father ever did. Pak Pong Ju, the architect of the 2002 experiments (who has seen the fruits of Chinese reforms for himself), has re-emerged from the political wilderness and is now Mr Kim’s prime minister. Mr Kim visits orphanages and amusement parks, and regularly speaks of improving people’s quality of life. He has positioned himself as the champion of a growing urban consumer class in the capital, Pyongyang.

Yet there are grounds for scepticism. Perhaps the best that can be said of the new measures is that they try to narrow the gulf between the regime’s upbeat propaganda (“Make fruits cascade down and their sweet aroma fill the air on the sea of apple trees at the foot of Chol Pass!”) and the sordid reality of the lives that many North Koreans lead.

A new generation of North Koreans has little recollection of families depending on the state for all their needs, says Sokeel Park of Liberty in North Korea, a group that works with defectors. A disastrous currency confiscation in 2009 hit small traders hardest, cementing distrust of the state. It even instilled a degree of defiance in those who had to work against the state system to survive. Young urban North Koreans recently defecting to the South claim not to have been afraid to criticise the Kims among close friends and family. This group, hooked on foreign media being smuggled into the North, now refers to itself as “awoken”, says Mr Park. As ever more information from outside is ferreted into the country on DVDs and USB drives, state rhetoric and reality grow further apart. Parts of the regime understand this. Some of the impetus for the market-oriented measures, says Christopher Green of Daily NK, a news source with informants in the North, is to bring rhetoric and reality closer into line.

Not quite Chol Pass, but it’s an improvement

In other words, the regime may not be leading change so much as responding to it. The collapse of the public distribution system, through which the command economy used to apportion goods, including food, was both a cause and consequence of the famine. Informal trading and smuggling networks, and black markets for food, sprang up as a result of it. The state has on occasion tried to suppress these markets, but has no more succeeded than with its attempts to reinstate the distribution system. Today, three-quarters of what most people earn probably comes from an unregulated private economy. A forthcoming book, “North Korea Confidential”, by James Pearson and Daniel Tudor (a former correspondent for The Economist), says that nearly all North Koreans lead a “double economic life”, supplementing measly rations and puny state wages of as little as $1 a month with extra work in their spare time.

To an extent, the recent top-down measures may be an acknowledgment that the bottom-up change of the past 15 or so years is irreversible. In fact, the regime has a growing interest in the non-state economy. Officials tolerate private trade partly because they get a cut—in effect running a protection racket. Many have become entrepreneurs themselves, managing state firms for private profit. The Kim family itself gets money from such firms. To the extent that the state has recently cracked down on smuggling from China, it is in order for Mr Kim and the elites around him to get a bigger share of the pie, according to Kim Kwang Jin, an analyst and North Korean defector who once worked in the regime’s “royal-court” economy.

Yet official corruption and protection rackets point to the limits of reform. There are rumours of local officials taking a cut of farmers’ crops. Concerned about losing influence and privileged access to food, some officials are also trying to revive the state plan, says Randall Ireson, an expert on North Korean agriculture. Meanwhile, farmers will continue to depend on ropy government agencies for essential materials such as fertiliser and oil. As for last year’s higher yields, they come at a price: emptying water reservoirs during a dry spell has left the country facing even more severe shortages of electricity than usual.

There is a deeper lesson from the Chinese reform path. It is that real, sustained improvements to a decrepit economy are possible only with outside expertise and capital. Yet, fearful of political meddling, the North remains deeply suspicious of foreign investment. Commercial relations with China, supposedly an ally, are abysmal, with Chinese mining and trading companies complaining of broken contracts and outright theft by their NorthKorean state partners. Even Rason, at the forefront of North Korea’s economic experiments, has yet to receive promised Chinese electricity from neighbouring Jilin province. A third bridge being constructed over the Yalu river, which separates the southern end of the two countries’ border, was set to open in October; yet roads linking it to transport networks on either side are unfinished, and work on it has stalled.

But it is North Korea’s nuclear-weapons programmes that do most to darken its relations with the outside world, above all South Korea, America and Japan. (Only with Russia is North Korea on good terms, and since that amity is based on hopes of aid, it is not likely to last, given Russia’s straitened finances.) The programmes have brought international sanctions down on North Korea, but the North gives no impression of abandoning them.

Indeed, according to a report by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, North Korea’s stockpile is poised for rapid expansion. From about a dozen weapons today, North Korea could build 100 within five years, even without a fourth nuclear test. Its plutonium-based weapons, the report claims, have already been miniaturised to carry on medium-range ballistic missiles.

It may be that the regime wants to develop the economy. But it is certainly not going to do so at the expense of developing nuclear weapons—or of lessening the repression and state violence by which it stays in power. It underscores the dead end into which its leaders have driven North Korea. Even if the current reforms are maintained, the improvement to the livelihoods of North Koreans is bound to be limited, no matter which Kim is in power.

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Just do it

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

THE prime minister, Shinzo Abe, clearly wants to convey a certain impression. In a policy speech to the Diet this month, he repeated the word kaikaku, or reform, no fewer than 36 times. Indeed, he promised “the most drastic reforms since the end of the second world war”, in which he would break the hold of vested interests on the Japanese economy. The prime minister and his advisers know exactly what steps are needed to raise Japan’s long-run rate of growth. Less clear, as ever, is whether they will take them.

So far as the economy is concerned, the government now has a kinder wind at its back. In mid-February came news that Japan pulled out of recession in the final quarter of last year, growing at an annualised rate of 2.2%. A conundrum for much of last year was the failure of exports to respond to a currency made much weaker by the central bank’s vast quantitative easing. Yet in the last quarter exports jumped at last, by an annualised 11%.

A sharply lower oil price, meanwhile, has offset the severe drag on demand that came from raising the consumption (value-added) tax last April from 5% to 8%. Now comes the prospect of bigger pay packages. Half of companies in a recent survey plan to raise basic wages this year, citing a tightening labour market and government pressure.

As for those vested interests, reformers point to Mr Abe’s attack on JA-Zenchu. This is the powerful bureaucracy and lobby group at the heart of the vast network of farming co-operatives known as Japan Agriculture. It was thought untouchable because of its close ties to politicians in Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—in rural areas, JA-Zenchu has a reputation for being able to get out the vote.

Yet this month Mr Abe forced through a plan to slash JA-Zenchu’s powers. It will no longer audit the 700 co-operatives or be allowed to guide their policy. The move is supposed to help make farmers more competitive. It comes at a time when negotiations with America over the Trans8-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-country free-trade agreement, were supposed to be coming to a head. JA-Zenchu opposes reductions in farm tariffs demanded by America.

The most substantial of Mr Abe’s reforms to date, however, has been to force Japan’s business establishment to accept useful changes in corporate governance. On June 1st a new code will come into effect stipulating that, among other things, listed companies have at least two outside directors on their board.

Significant though these two measures are, along with others (including helping women in work), they fall far short of what Japan’s gummed-up economy requires. That is why a key test will be whether the government pushes on with bold changes to the labour market this year. One reason for stagnant wages is that companies with too many workers cannot easily fire them, even with generous compensation.

Yasutoshi Nishimura, a vice-minister in the cabinet office, says that Japan badly needs to shift from a system in which graduates join a single company for life to one in which people can easily switch firms. In the spring the government will propose ways of allowing permanent workers to be fired in return for severance pay. It is the most critical—and delicate—of Mr Abe’s proposed reforms. Implementing it, backers say, will take time.

The government also promises to bring down the public debt, which stands at more than 240% of GDP. It will soon seek Diet approval for a ¥96.3 trillion ($810 billion) budget, a record. Higher tax receipts mean that annual borrowing requirements should not rise. But the government is on course to flunk a key target to balance the budget by 2020.

Mr Abe is to report in the summer on how to repair the public finances. Before then, a key economic-policy council will present proposals to cut social spending. These could include bringing in the private sector to deliver services, according to a council member, Takeshi Niinami. A battle with Japan’s powerful doctors’ lobby, which opposes increased competition in medical services, also looms. Mr Niinami says the skills to push such changes through demand patience, and subtle abilities to bring round opponents of reform. Will the distinction between canny patience and dithering be clear?

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Reclamation marks

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

THE barren islets, cays, reefs, shoals and rocks of the South China Sea are witnessing an unprecedented building boom. Satellite pictures have revealed more about the reclamation work undertaken by China on features, especially in the Spratly archipelago, also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

On Woody Island, part of the Paracels group which is claimed by both Vietnam and Taiwan, China has long had an airstrip 2.7km (1.7 miles) long. Now, at Fiery Cross Reef, it appears to be building a 3km-long airstrip. At Hughes Reef, 75,000 square metres of sand have been reclaimed since last August to house a large new facility, according to estimates by IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, a specialist journal. Further work is under way at Gaven, Cuarteron, Eldad and Mischief reefs.

China contends that it is only catching up with decades of building by other claimants. Vietnam is estimated to have built on 25 features in the Spratlys. Taiwan is quietly building a new port big enough to host warships on Itu Aba (also known as Taiping), in natural terms the largest of the Spratlys. Fiery Cross now appears to be larger. Indeed, China’s building stands out for three reasons: its extent, its speed and its egregious flouting of the spirit of a declaration signed in 2002 with ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, in which all claimants promised “to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes.”

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Reclamation marks

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

THE barren islets, cays, reefs, shoals and rocks of the South China Sea are witnessing an unprecedented building boom. Satellite pictures have revealed more about the reclamation work undertaken by China on features, especially in the Spratly archipelago, also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

On Woody Island, part of the Paracels group which is claimed by both Vietnam and Taiwan, China has long had an airstrip 2.7km (1.7 miles) long. Now, at Fiery Cross Reef, it appears to be building a 3km-long airstrip. At Hughes Reef, 75,000 square metres of sand have been reclaimed since last August to house a large new facility, according to estimates by IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, a specialist journal. Further work is under way at Gaven, Cuarteron, Eldad and Mischief reefs.

China contends that it is only catching up with decades of building by other claimants. Vietnam is estimated to have built on 25 features in the Spratlys. Taiwan is quietly building a new port big enough to host warships on Itu Aba (also known as Taiping), in natural terms the largest of the Spratlys. Fiery Cross now appears to be larger. Indeed, China’s building stands out for three reasons: its extent, its speed and its egregious flouting of the spirit of a declaration signed in 2002 with ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, in which all claimants promised “to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes.”

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Reclamation marks

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

THE barren islets, cays, reefs, shoals and rocks of the South China Sea are witnessing an unprecedented building boom. Satellite pictures have revealed more about the reclamation work undertaken by China on features, especially in the Spratly archipelago, also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

On Woody Island, part of the Paracels group which is claimed by both Vietnam and Taiwan, China has long had an airstrip 2.7km (1.7 miles) long. Now, at Fiery Cross Reef, it appears to be building a 3km-long airstrip. At Hughes Reef, 75,000 square metres of sand have been reclaimed since last August to house a large new facility, according to estimates by IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, a specialist journal. Further work is under way at Gaven, Cuarteron, Eldad and Mischief reefs.

China contends that it is only catching up with decades of building by other claimants. Vietnam is estimated to have built on 25 features in the Spratlys. Taiwan is quietly building a new port big enough to host warships on Itu Aba (also known as Taiping), in natural terms the largest of the Spratlys. Fiery Cross now appears to be larger. Indeed, China’s building stands out for three reasons: its extent, its speed and its egregious flouting of the spirit of a declaration signed in 2002 with ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, in which all claimants promised “to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes.”

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Scuzz up

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

Spiil, ruin, contaminate

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John Green

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"It seemed like forever ago, like we�d had this brief but still infinite forever. Some infinities are bigger than other infinities."

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Kristin Hunter

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"First it is necessary to stand on your own two feet. But the minute a man finds himself in that position, the next thing he should do is reach out his arms."

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Dorothy C. Fisher

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"A mother is not a person to lean on but a person to make leaning unnecessary."

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Jacques Deval

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"God loved the birds and invented trees. Man loved the birds and invented cages."

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Helen Keller

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"One can never consent to creep when one feels an impulse to soar."

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Confucius

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"To see what is right and not to do it is want of courage."

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Hugh Macleod

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"People are fond of spouting out the old clich%uFFFD about how Van Gogh never sold a painting in his lifetime. Somehow his example serves to justify to us, decades later, that there is somehow merit in utter failure./ Perhaps, but the man did commit suicide."

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J. H. Holmes

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"The universe is not hostile, nor yet is it friendly. It is simply indifferent."

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Claudia Jewett Jarrett

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"It is the caring and sharing that count�love is not prevented by the things and the time that you haven�t shared."

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The Dhammapada

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"Travel only with thy equals or thy betters; if there are none, travel alone."

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Amelia Earhart

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"Courage is the price that Life exacts for granting peace."

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James Gordon

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"It's not that some people have willpower and some don't. It's that some people are ready to change and others are not."

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Cut through

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Go through a place instead of going around it

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Cut through

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Deal quickly with a complex issue that is causing trouble

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Fork in the road

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A fork in the road is a point where you have to make a decision and choose which possibil;ity you are goping to stick with.

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Without batting an eye

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If someone does something without batting an eye, they do it without showing alarm or any response; acting as though nothing were unusual.

(Without batting an eyelid is also used.)

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Heather Armstrong

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"Keep writing. Keep doing it and doing it. Even in the moments when it's so hurtful to think about writing."

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George Burns

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"You can't help getting older, but you don't have to get old."

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John Updike

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"Dreams come true. Without that possibility, nature would not incite us to have them."

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Homer

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"Do thou restrain the haughty spirit in thy breast, for better far is gentle courtesy."

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Malcolm Gladwell

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"Truly successful decision making relies on a balance between deliberate and instinctive thinking."

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Kathleen Norris

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"Intimacy is what makes a marriage, not a ceremony, not a piece of paper from the state."

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Alice Koller

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"I've arrived at this outermost edge of my life by my own actions. Where I am is thoroughly unacceptable. Therefore, I must stop doing what I've been doing."

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L. M. Montgomery

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"Anyone who has gumption knows what it is, and anyone who hasn't can never know what it is. So there is no need of defining it."

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Barack Obama

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"When our government is spoken of as some menacing, threatening, foreign entity, it ignores the fact that in our democracy, government is us."

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Lord Chesterfield

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"Know the true value of time; snatch, seize, and enjoy every moment of it. No idleness; no laziness; no procrastination; never put off till tomorrow what you can do today."

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Charles Dickens

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"Reflect on your present blessings, of which every man has many; not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some."

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Cullen Hightower

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"People seldom become famous for what they say until after they are famous for what they've done."

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Daniel Raeburn

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"Facing a mirror you see merely your own countenance; facing your child you finally understand how everyone else has seen you."

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Robert S. McNamara

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"Brains, like hearts, go where they are appreciated."

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Andre Gide

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"So long as we live among men, let us cherish humanity."

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Joyce Carol Oates

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"If you explore beneath shyness or party chit-chat, you can sometimes turn a dull exchange into an intriguing one. I've found this to be particularly true in the case of professors or intellectuals, who are full of fascinating information, but need encouragement before they'll divulge it."

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Bear with us

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

IN WHAT must have seemed a good idea at the time, Julie Bishop, Australia’s foreign minister, this week gave an interview to BuzzFeed, a digital news-service, answering questions solely in emoji icons. Asked to pick one to embody Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, she plumped for an angry face, the shape and colour of a blood orange. It is an image of Mr Putin that will seem almost commonplace to Australia’s traditional allies in America and Europe. In Asia, however, the Russian leader is more often to be seen in softer shades, wearing an ingratiating smile and trying hard to make friends. Pilloried and sometimes shunned by the West, Mr Putin has been conducting his own foreign-policy “pivot” to Asia. It seems, at first blush, to be going swimmingly.

Relations with China, Russia’s biggest neighbour and Asia’s greatest power, are thriving, buoyed by a 30-year deal agreed last May to supply Siberian gas to China by pipeline. In December Mr Putin was warmly received in Delhi by Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, even though the Russian defence minister had been in Pakistan, India’s old enemy, signing a military co-operation agreement the previous month. And, this month, not long after Mr Modi had lavished hospitality and friendship on President Barack Obama, the Indian foreign minister was in Beijing for trilateral meetings at which China, India and Russia agreed to “strengthen co-ordination on global issues”.

Mr Putin has been courting Asian friends old and new. In November, Vietnam granted the Russian navy special port-call rights at the old American (and Soviet) base at Cam Ranh Bay. And Mr Putin is holding a big party in Moscow in May to mark the 70th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat. He has invited Xi Jinping of China; North Korea’s Kim Jong Un (for what might be his first overseas trip as dictator); and President Park Geun-hye of South Korea—though as a staunch American ally, Ms Park will find it hard to go.

So will Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, who is also on the guest list. That said, Mr Putin has even been making progress in Japan, whose relations with Russia are burdened by a 70-year-old grudge over the Soviet Union’s occupation in the dying days of the second world war of four islands Japan regards as its own—an issue that has blocked the signing of a peace treaty ending the war. Japan is a paid-up member of the rich-world’s G7 club, and has joined in placing sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. But Mr Abe prides himself on a good rapport with Mr Putin, and the prime minister recently told the Diet that he hoped Russia’s leader would come to Japan this year to discuss economic co-operation and a settlement to the territorial dispute. As he spoke, a deputy foreign minister was in Moscow to discuss the visit.

Mr Abe’s enthusiasm for better relations with Russia is understandable. With its geographic proximity and huge demand for imported energy, Japan is an obvious market for gas from the Russian Far East. And many Japanese leaders have hoped to jolt bilateral relations out of what Mikhail Gorbachev nearly 30 years ago called a “broken record running over and over in the same groove”. Improving relations has seemed more urgent in recent years, as China’s rise has at times appeared to threaten Japan.

Even if Mr Putin’s visit comes off, however, a breakthrough is unlikely. Unless Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere on its western periphery changes, Japan’s treaty partner, America, is unlikely to take kindly to its granting Mr Putin an economic lifeline in the east. And neither Mr Putin nor Mr Abe, both of whom are nationalists, will find it easy to make a concession over the disputed islands.

Nor do Mr Putin’s successes in South Asia, on closer scrutiny, look so impressive. Indian officials and soldiers grumble that the long-standing defence relationship with Russia has been soured by its sales of overpriced and unreliable kit. They are further incensed at the new Russian military ties with Pakistan, which this month was reported to have been allowed for the first time to buy jet engines for its fighters directly from Russia. India is not being asked to join an American-led alliance (no one is yet contemplating an Asian NATO to contain China and Russia). But the long-run trend is a dwindling of India’s links with Russia and ever closer security ties with America. That of course worries Pakistan, which in any event fears what it sees as a history of fickleness from its American ally, turning away when it does not need Pakistan’s help in a war in Afghanistan. Hence Pakistan’s readiness to accept Russian overtures.

The China price

So Mr Putin’s pivot seems less towards Asia as a whole than towards China, by far Russia’s biggest trading partner in Asia (though far smaller than Europe). China has a huge demand for Russian energy; and as another permanent member of the UN Security Council, it is an important diplomatic shield. Yet Russia fears the rise of China, a populous neighbour hungry for not just its resources but perhaps one day its space. And in the near term, the Russian partnership with China is lopsided. Russia needs China far more than China needs it.

The gas deal may have been an attempt to change that equation. China is widely seen as having squeezed an extremely good deal out of a sorely pressed Russia. The upside for Russia would have been that China was becoming dependent on it for a vital raw material. But according to research conducted for the National Bureau for Asian Research, an American think-tank, Russia’s share of the north-east Asian gas market is unlikely to exceed 3% in the next decade and by 2030 will be no more than 9%. Most of China’s gas will come from Australia, the Middle East and elsewhere. So the dependence seems to be in the other direction: of Russia on a hard-bargaining Chinese customer. Rather than offering Mr Putin a way out of his troubles in Europe, Asia presents new ones all its own.

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More process than peace

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

EVERY year Myanmar celebrates Union Day on February 12th to mark the signing of the Panglong agreement in 1947, which unified the country then known as Burma. President Thein Sein had hoped to use this year’s Union Day to sign a national ceasefire accord with most of the many armed ethnic groups which, for decades, have battled a government until recently in the hands of brutal military rulers. Instead, Myanmar’s army was embroiled in some of the heaviest fighting in years, after rebels from among the Kokang—an ethnic-Han people in northern Shan State on the Chinese border—tried to seize control of Laukkai, the Kokang region’s capital (see article). At least 75 government and rebel troops have been killed, and thousands of civilians have fled.

Elsewhere, low-level fighting continues between the army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which represents the Palaung, an ethnic Mon-Khmer people in northern Shan State. The Arakan Army, based in western Myanmar, fights alongside the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin state in the north. In November the government killed 22 Kachin soldiers in an attack on a training camp, and clashes continued in January. Gun Maw, a Kachin general, said last month at negotiations in Chiang Mai in Thailand that his group is “still far away” from agreeing to a ceasefire.

The Arakan Army, the TNLA and other armies in Shan state are all said to be providing support, including arms, to the Kokang rebels. Other groups, however, have come to the table. On February 12th representatives of four ethnic armies signed a pledge with the government to seek a national ceasefire agreement “without delay” and to work towards building a union “based on democratic and federal principles”.

Myanmar’s rebel groups often have wildly differing interests. Some come from dirt-poor regions and want peace because of hopes of money from the centre. But other groups have become, in effect, vast criminal enterprises, funding themselves through sales of gold, jade, timber and drugs. The intensity of their opposition to a ceasefire can reflect a desire to keep the income from such activities flowing.

The government sees a national ceasefire agreement as a precondition for a political settlement. But the ethnic armies want a political settlement before they will lay down arms for good. As a result, after 200 meetings between government negotiators and most ethnic armies, the two camps remain deeply divided.

Mr Thein Sein still wants a ceasefire agreed and political dialogue well under way by the general election due in November. Quite whether the looming election helps or harms the pursuit of peace is unclear. Some think it gives the government and the ethnic armies more incentive to strike a deal. Any agreement should involve a hefty redistribution from relatively wealthy areas to poor regions. That would prove politically unpopular in the country’s majority-Burman heartland. It is unlikely that the next government will have the clout of this military-dominated one to overcome such resistance. That, says Richard Horsey, a Myanmar analyst, makes this the best time for the ethnic armies to seek a deal.

For now, however, the current set-up suits rather too many. While ethnic armies enrich themselves in their regions through illegal trade and taxation bordering on extortion, some army officers even collude in it. In any political settlement, Myanmar’s government would have to give up some of its central powers, and the ethnic armies would have to cede much to the centre—presumably folding their militias into the national army or regional police forces. In the absence of a deal, both sides avoid difficult and unpopular decisions.

A longtime Myanmar expert, Bertil Linter, says that government and rebel armies have “fundamentally different ideas” about what kind of country theirs should be. Both sides pay lip-service to the notion of some kind of federal union. But the ethnic armies want maximal devolved power, whereas the central government wants the opposite—after all, holding on tight to the country for fear that things might fall apart was the rationale for the Burmese army’s long dictatorship. At present Myanmar’s peace process offers a whole lot of process, and not enough lasting peace.

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Restoring balance

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

Sirisena looks north again

FOR many Sri Lankans the most remarkable feature of Maithripala Sirisena’s four-day trip to India this week, his first as president after a stunningly unexpected election victory in January, was that he took a commercial flight. His predecessor, Mahinda Rajapaksa—who, with his family, had given the impression of intending to rule for the long run—usually poached an aircraft from the national fleet. The trip was intended to change perceptions in other ways, too. The most important one was to restore a broken friendship with India without upsetting China, a big creditor in Sri Lanka and, under the Rajapaksas, an increasingly important ally.

Sri Lanka’s treatment of ethnic Tamils in its north had troubled many in India, especially Tamils. Mr Rajapaksa made matters worse by breaking promises to devolve more power to the north after a brutal civil war. And last year he infuriated India by letting a Chinese submarine dock twice at Colombo, the capital.

After the trip, the mood is notably cheerier. Several deals were signed, including Sri Lanka’s first on civil nuclear co-operation. Though it may not amount to much, India’s press gamely described it as pre-empting Chinese ambitions. And Narendra Modi, who was eager to charm, will visit Sri Lanka in March, the first visit by an Indian prime minister for 28 years.

India would be delighted if Sri Lanka kicked the Chinese out as it has the Rajapaksas. That is not on the cards. Mr Sirisena needs investment. He will not scrap a $1.4 billion project that would see Chinese firms build a property development on an artificial island off Colombo’s port. The terms of this and several other Chinese deals could, however, be reviewed. Debt owed to China has soared in recent years, ringing alarm bells.

China has responded to Sri Lanka’s warmer relations with India by sending officials to pledge to do what it takes to strengthen the “strategic partnership”. Mr Sirisena’s next big trip is to Beijing, in March. (A senior Sri Lankan diplomat dismisses the suggestion that the president is playing one suitor against another.)

Mr Sirisena also wants to placate Western countries, who worry about human-rights abuses, particularly against the northern Tamils. His predecessor had refused to set up a credible investigation into atrocities by both Tamil rebels and government soldiers in the final months of the civil war that ended in 2009. The results of a UN investigation, due to be published next month, were this week delayed until September—possibly to allow Sri Lanka to conduct a proper inquiry itself.

But Mr Sirisena must also concentrate on domestic affairs before parliamentary elections due in June. During his presidential campaign he promised change in his first 100 days, including constitutional reform, a law on freedom of information, cheaper food and even free Wi-Fi in every town. But progress is slow. The coalition led by the new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is made up of rival parties. Locals liken it to an achcharu, a mixed pickle.

Meanwhile, despite Mr Sirisena’s promise to weaken the institution, the presidency remains overweening, and there is no sign of a promised freedom-of-information bill. A more hopeful signal comes from the appointment of a new chief justice, a Tamil. A hated military governor in the north has also been replaced by a civilian. Though a heavy military presence remains there, some small plots of armyoccupied land are due to be returned to their owners soon.

Yet politicians will be distracted by those looming elections. On February 18th the opposition rallied Mr Rajapaksa’s supporters to call for his return, this time as prime minister. That is unlikely, but not impossible: as the presidential poll showed, voters dislike being taken for granted.

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Phone home

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

JUST before the celebrations of Myanmar’s Union Day, not to mention the Chinese new year, a warlord and drug baron in his 80s, Phone Kyar Shin, created spectacular fireworks of his own. His militia launched blistering attacks on the Burmese army around Laukkai, capital of Kokang, a small region of Myanmar bordering China’s Yunnan province.

Perhaps this was revenge: in 2009 the army went after Mr Phone and his Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. He seems then to have lost control of the army to his deputies. That “Kokang incident” was the bloodiest flare-up among Myanmar’s conflicts in years. As in 2009, the violence sent many ethnic Kokang fleeing for safety to China. On February 17th Myanmar’s president, Thein Sein, declared martial law in Kokang.

The Kokang are a Han-Chinese people who have been in the region for centuries. After the Kokang incident, China was highly critical of the Burmese army, not just for causing a refugee crisis along its border, but also, it seems, because of a sense of shared ethnicity with the Kokang. Mr Phone himself was given sanctuary in China, where he is called Peng Jiasheng.

Since the Kokang incident, Mr Phone has frequently appealed in the Chinese media to notions of shared blood. Many ordinary Chinese believed his claims that in Kokang the Burmese army was acting in pursuit of American interests. Perhaps powerful people in Yunnan backed him.

Mr Phone’s hope, with his attacks, may be to get China to pressure the Burmese government to resolve an issue that is sending waves of refugees across the border—presumably by ordering the army to withdraw. Then Mr Phone would have control of his kingdom again. Who knows? He might even be minded to run in the general election as a good democrat.

If so, as Yun Sun of the Stimson Centre in Washington writes (in the Irrawaddy, an online news organisation based in Thailand), he may have misjudged China’s priorities these days. The government is connecting south-west China with the Bay of Bengal via two oil-and-gas pipelines and other vast infrastructure projects in Myanmar. That country’s strategic importance, she says, “significantly outweighs China’s interest in the border ethnic groups”. In expecting sympathy from China, Mr Phone may be pushing his luck.

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More than a lick of paint needed

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

APOLLO TYRES started life in 1972, but a milestone for the firm came two decades later, in 1991, when it completed a huge factory in Limda, near the industrial city of Vadodora in Gujarat state. It was a notable year for India because, in the face of mounting economic crisis, the finance minister of the day, Manmohan Singh, took the first steps in a momentous budget to throw off the shackles of bureaucracy, protectionism and state-dominated business that had held India back for so long.

The economy fizzed, and with it Apollo Tyres. Its factory has twice been extended since. The most recent addition in 2009 was inaugurated by Narendra Modi, then Gujarat’s chief minister, now India’s prime minister. A framed photograph of Mr Modi adorns the factory entrance.

Disappointment about India’s prospects set in with a vengeance not long after the photo was taken. Mr Singh, who became prime minister in 2004, lost his reform mojo and growth slowed; then, a couple of years ago, the Indian economy flirted with another balance-of-payments crisis, when India’s currency and stockmarket dived.

How different the mood is today. Apollo is just the kind of company that India’s boosters are proud of: its four Indian plants not only produce for a booming domestic car industry, but export 1m passenger-car tyres a year to Europe. Jumbo tyres for monster mining vehicles are made to order in the newest part of the Limda plant. Yet enthusiasm for India’s prospects runs broader. Textile operators are rushing to set up factories in Tiruppur in Tamil Nadu, India’s “knitwear capital”. Japan’s heavy-industry giants are enthused again about a planned Delhi-Mumbai industrial “corridor”, which has official Japanese backing. America’s General Motors is exporting Indian-made cars to South America. And everywhere brokers and investment bankers are rating India a “buy” once more.

In part the optimism is due to a recovery that is not shared by other big emerging economies, notably Russia and Brazil. India is benefiting hugely from a worldwide slump in energy prices. Consumer-price inflation has halved, to 5.1%. The current-account deficit has shrunk. And the rupee has been stable (see charts). Official statistics show that GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2014. Though that figure has been “improved” by statistical tinkering, the economy is more stable than it has been for years.

The optimism has also to do with Mr Modi himself. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a thumping victory in India’s general election last May in big part because of his business-friendly record as chief minister of Gujarat, and because he promised to transform the daily lives of 1.25 billion Indians.

And yet. For all the renewed cheer, most Indians face a formidable set of challenges before their lives can be transformed. For all of Apollo’s success as a large manufacturer, its kind are notable exceptions in India. Most Indians still earn hardscrabble livings in the countryside. Many who escape farm work for the cities make a living not in regular employment but in informal services or small-scale manufacturing, where productivity and wages are low. Successful companies face huge obstacles and much red tape. Electricity is unpredictable. Air and water are massively polluted. And infrastructure—from roads to ports to power stations—is woefully inadequate.

On February 28th Mr Modi, through his finance minister, Arun Jaitley, can send a powerful message both to Indians and foreign investors that his government means change. It is when Mr Jaitley presents the government’s first full budget. Used cleverly, it could serve as a clear signal of the Modi government’s intentions in the months and years ahead. For Indians’ sake, it should aim to be as transformational as Mr Singh’s was in 1991. Whether it will astonish or not is less clear.

Making your own breeze

To give the government credit, it has created some of the fair wind behind it now. At the origin of India’s slump earlier this decade was a sharp fall in investment. Big projects, such as power plants and roads, became snarled up in red tape. Huge corruption scandals broke in 2011 surrounding the transfer of mining rights and mobile-phone licences to private companies. That made civil servants cautious about granting permits and licences lest they also be accused of graft.

Another constraint was inflation fuelled by cheap money and fiscal stimulus. The economy overheated, and as inflation climbed, Indians rushed into gold, a popular store of value. Surging imports of gold pushed up the current-account deficit to alarming levels. The mix of a fiscal deficit, a gaping current account and inflation caused a sharp fall in the rupee in 2013 as foreign capital fled.

The old government and the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), took steps to get India back on track. Mr Modi has taken a few more. In his early weeks in power he lit a rocket under the bureaucracy (though he is still said to be aghast at the resistance, listlessness and lack of capacity he has met among even senior civil servants). A backlog of applications for business licences began to shrink.

A decision by the Supreme Court in September to cancel 214 coal-mining licences granted between 1993 and 2010, because of corruption surrounding their issuance, introduced huge uncertainty. But a new regime of auctioning replacement licences began this month. Leading indicators of capital spending, such as lorry sales, are slowly picking up. The RBI, under the leadership of its able governor, Raghuram Rajan, has met its target of getting inflation below 8% by the start of this year—a commitment that helped to calm financial markets and stabilise the currency. It is now confident enough of meeting a second goal of bringing inflation below 6% by 2016 that in January it cut interest rates for the first time in two years. Further reductions are likely.

The central bank has several remaining challenges. The biggest is that India’s public-sector banks are so weighed down by dud loans from the last investment boom that they will be unable to finance the next one. The RBI says that, from the beginning of April, loans that have had their terms rejigged will be treated as if they are bad loans: banks will have to set aside 15% of the loans’ value as a precaution. The deadline ought to encourage banks and debtors to agree on how to share losses. A resolution to the bad-debt problem would eventually free up the worst-affected borrowers—mostly power and infrastructure firms—to start new projects.

In addition, India’s state banks may need up to $85 billion to meet international rules on capital and to cover losses on bad debts. That cannot all come from the government. Mr Jaitley has said he will allow private investors to hold up to 48% of state banks’ shares. But new shares cannot be sold at a good price unless he can convince investors that banks will be run free of political interference. One proposal is that the state’s ownership of banks should be rolled up into an arms-length holding company.

Taking the giant steps

Mr Jaitley must signal reform appetite in other areas, too. A vital one is companies’ ease of doing business, on which the World Bank ranks India 142nd in the world. The government has made a start, with ordinances in December that make it easier to acquire land for development. Separately, there are plans for a single portal through which new businesses can apply for all the permits needed from various government departments. The government has blessed a move by Rajasthan to loosen its labour laws by declaring that its liberalisation trumps archaic national laws. And given India’s appalling reputation for imposing arbitrary taxes on companies, it is encouraging that the government has not appealed against a recent court judgment to do with tax in favour of big multinationals.

Another crucial area is to push forward plans for a national goods-and-services tax (GST). Such a tax is critical, for two reasons. First, it is the best way for the central government to increase taxes as a share of GDP. Its abysmally low current share is a huge constraint on policymaking. Second, a GST would also replace a welter of state taxes and other levies that serve, in effect, as protectionist barriers, impeding a true internal market in India. The government recently tabled a bill to establish a GST, possibly the single biggest reform it could make. But such a tax has been discussed for years. Now the government has to make it happen.

Elsewhere, the groundwork for bolder reforms is in place. A switch from subsidies, such as those on fuel and food, to cash benefits for the needy would cut waste and save money. As little as half of public spending on welfare reaches its intended recipients, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Half of the subsidised grain set aside for the poor either turns bad in transit or ends up being sold on the open market. On top of this are the costs of implicit subsidies. Politicians often bully regulators to cap electricity prices, causing losses among generators. The result is power shortages.

A system for cash transfers is being set up. The government says that more than 125m no-frills bank accounts, linked to biometric identity cards, have been opened for ordinary Indians. Two-thirds of the new accounts remain unused. But Mr Jaitley says that 330 billion rupees ($5.3 billion) in transfer payments and wages from a rural employment scheme will soon flow into them. Another potential route is banking using mobile phones. India’s big mobile operators have rushed to apply for a new sort of banking licence.

Still bolder moves will be needed if Indians are to enjoy sharply higher living standards. Skill levels remain an obstacle to many sorts of work. Almost 70% of India’s working-age population have no education past primary school. Their best hope of escaping low-wage farm work is low- to mid-skilled jobs in factories, shops, hotels or restaurants. Yet India’s regulations put a cap on firm size. Four-fifths of the jobs in Indian manufacturing are in firms employing fewer than 50 workers. Firms that want to grow bigger have problems dealing with fiddly regulations, buying land, securing power and working around India’s baffling labour laws.

These are big issues for Mr Jaitley to take on. At the least he needs to signal an intention to carry out well-sequenced reforms to raise growth and create jobs. The doubt is whether he is able to do so. Last July Mr Jaitley’s stopgap budget was a timid affair. He is, in truth, an old parliamentary operator rather than a bold reformer.

The prime minister’s office is said to be guiding chunks of the budget—no bad thing. But in the coming months the government must also get legislation passed, national tax reform above all. It will mean persuading states—BJP-led ones almost as much as those, such as West Bengal, run by fierce opponents—to strike a deal at last on tax. If this parliamentary session achieves as little as the ones to date under Mr Modi, then he will have found that, so far as his domestic agenda is concerned, the first of five years has already slipped away.

Even the most successful businesses retain an air of healthy scepticism. Why should Apollo, which is putting up a brand-new factory in Hungary, not build a new factory in India? “A new greenfield investment is a question-mark,” says the firm’s boss, Neeraj Kanwar. “Let’s see what happens in the next two years.”

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Colby Dorr Dam

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"Each person has an ideal, a hope, a dream which represents the soul. We must give to it the warmth of love, the light of understanding and the essence of encouragement."

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Irving Wallace

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"To be one's self, and unafraid whether right or wrong, is more admirable than the easy cowardice of surrender to conformity."

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Dianne Hales

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"Put duties aside at least an hour before bed and perform soothing, quiet activities that will help you relax."

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Anton Chekhov

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"Man is what he believes."

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Ward Jenkins

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"The sweet and the sour: this is what makes great art."

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Jeff Melvoin

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"Is love supposed to last throughout all time, or is it like trains changing at random stops. If I loved her, how could I leave her? If I felt that way then, how come I don't feel anything now?"

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John F. Kennedy

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"We stand for freedom. That is our conviction for ourselves; that is our only commitment to others."

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Martha Graham

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"The body says what words cannot."

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Stephanie Klein

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"There's something almost perfect in the ugly duckling syndrome. Because a sensitivity is tattooed on a part of you no one else can see but can somehow guess is there."

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Seneca

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"We should every night call ourselves to an account; What infirmity have I mastered today? What passions opposed? What temptation resisted? What virtue acquired? Our vices will abort of themselves if they be brought every day to the shrift."

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Albert Einstein

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"Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value."

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Francis Beaumont

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"Let us have a care not to disclose our hearts to those who shut up theirs against us."

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Kent Nichols and Douglas Sarine

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"Here's a tip to avoid death by celebrity: First off, get a life. They can't touch you if you're out doing something interesting."

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Bono

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"There's the country of America, which you have to defend, but there's also the idea of America. America is more than just a country, it's an idea. An idea that's supposed to be contagious."

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Sir Winston Churchill

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"It's not enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what's required."

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Jules Renard

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"The only man who is really free is the one who can turn down an invitation to dinner without giving an excuse."

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Real Live Preacher

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"My life is the story of a man who always wants to carry too much. My spiritual quest is the painful process of learning to let go of things not essential."

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Henry Winkler

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"Assumptions are the termites of relationships."

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Eleanor Roosevelt

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"Do what you feel in your heart to be right - for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't."

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George C. Marshall

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"When a thing is done, it's done. Don't look back. Look forward to your next objective."

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Jane Austen

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"One does not love a place the less for having suffered in it, unless it has been all suffering, nothing but suffering."

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W. Somerset Maugham

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"You learn more quickly under the guidance of experienced teachers. You waste a lot of time going down blind alleys if you have no one to lead you."

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Minor White

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"No matter how slow the film, Spirit always stands still long enough for the photographer It has chosen."

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George Santayana

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"A man's feet should be planted in his country, but his eyes should survey the world."

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John Green

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"Stories don�t just make us matter to each other�maybe they�re also the only way to the infinite mattering he�d been after for so long."

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Randy Pausch

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"Advice is very easy to give, and even easier not to follow, so I don't fool with it."

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R. Stevens

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

"Don't get yourself arrested and make your day worse! If you need to vent, just smash something that's already broken! You can't get in trouble for wrecking the unsalvageable!"

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Will Rogers

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"Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip."

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Indian politics: Mufflerman triumphs

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

POLITICAL cycles in India are speeding up. Just over a year ago the country feted Arvind Kejriwal, of the Aam Aadmi (“Common Man”) Party (AAP), as a political hero. He had turned an anti-corruption movement into an electoral machine, winning voters from across religious, caste and class lines. Storming assembly polls, his AAP took power in Delhi, the national capital which is effectively a state.

Mr Kejriwal (pictured above, on a supporter’s face) blew his opportunity. As Delhi’s chief, he attacked venal police and bureaucrats, and gave the poor free water and cheap electricity. But his rule was chaotic, confrontational and short. He resigned after 49 days. Worse, he launched an over-ambitious campaign in last year’s general election. The AAP flopped, taking just four seats; none in Delhi. He apologised, both for quitting in Delhi and for fielding too many candidates nationally.

Eight months on, the cycle has turned again. Assembly polls in Delhi on February 7th gave Mr Kejriwal one of the biggest wins for any party, anywhere in India, since independence. AAP won 67 of 70 seats. Congress, which ran the city for 15 years until 2013, was obliterated. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in power nationally, suffered its worst ever result in Delhi.

The outcome is significant. Delhi, with 18m residents, is small but matters more than many states. When Mr Kejriwal becomes chief minister on February 14th he will get a platform for opposing Narendra Modi, the prime minister. Capable on television and keener than Mr Modi on public debate, he could speak about national issues. If he is smart, however, he will hunker down and try to run Delhi well, so voters might trust him later nationally. After results were announced on February 10th he vowed not to be arrogant.

AAP won for many reasons. If the election had been held in July, the earliest plausible date, enthusiasm for Mr Modi might have swept in the BJP, which has recently won four other state polls. Instead, AAP had time to marshal voters, who liked Mr Kejriwal’s humility and promise of honest rule. The BJP candidate, Kiran Bedi, charmed nobody. Most important, the non-BJP voters united behind Mr Kejriwal: the BJP got 32% of the vote, about the same as last time; AAP got 54%.

This counts as Mr Modi’s first big electoral loss. The campaign centred on him: he was at the forefront of BJP election propaganda, billboards and newspaper advertisements, as well as four rallies. Many voters, even some BJP MPs privately, welcomed a check on what is widely seen as his arrogance; he is known as high-handed and aloof in government. His appeal to ordinary voters has slipped: he recently appeared in a lavish suit, its golden pinstripes embroidered with his name. “India’s electorate fundamentally doesn’t like hubris,” says Pratap Bhanu Mehta, the head of a think-tank in Delhi. Mr Kejriwal appears modest: he sports a tatty scarf and is dubbed “mufflerman”.

Many voters also disliked evidence of religious extremism. One BJP minister, in Delhi in December, called non-Hindus “bastards” and earned only a light reprimand from Mr Modi. A fringe around the BJP seeks mass conversions to Hinduism, while stirring fears of “love jihad”, a supposed Muslim campaign to seduce Hindu women. Mohan Bhagwat of the Hindu-nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), an ally of Mr Modi, repeatedly says that all Indians are Hindus, offending minorities. Recent attacks on churches in Delhi have also spread anxiety.

As for Congress, the election in Delhi has left it “staring at the abyss of irrelevance”, says Jairam Ramesh, a former cabinet minister, unless it reforms and finds a new leader. The AAP’s main strategist, Yogendra Yadav, talks of his party filling a vacuum in the national opposition. A test looms in assembly elections in poor but populous Bihar, where the BJP hopes to expand. But other parties, as in Delhi, could again unite against the BJP.

All eyes are now on Mr Modi. He could change his ruling style (and tailor), but shutting up Hindu nationalists will be trickier: they help to fire up the campaigns of many BJP MPs during elections. His biggest challenge will be judging the public mood. Those anxious for change hope the budget on February 28th will signal his support for radical devolution of power to states, changes in the tax system, a new land law and more.

But Mr Modi’s intentions are unclear. He may see such reforms as a boost to the economy which would win him more support; or he may back off, fearing the political risks. He and Mr Kejriwal face similar pressure: voters who provide huge electoral mandates are often also the most impatient for results. That does not make delivering them easy.

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Banyan: Malaysia’s dark side

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

AFTER taking an inexplicable four months to make up its mind, Malaysia’s highest court on February 10th came up with the verdict its critics said had been scripted for it all along. It rejected an appeal by Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition leader, against his conviction on a charge of sodomy—of having sex in 2008 with a young man who had worked for him. It upheld the five-year jail sentence imposed last March. Since a prison term also entails a five-year ban after release from running for political office, this would rule Mr Anwar out of the next two general elections. And since he is 67, it might mark the end of his political career.

The three-party coalition he heads, Pakatan Rakyat, poses the most serious threat the United Malays National Organisation, UMNO, has faced in its nearly six decades of continuous rule. But the opposition depends heavily on Mr Anwar’s leadership, so his sentence sounds like good news for the prime minister, Najib Razak. Celebration, however, would be short-sighted.

Having Mr Anwar out of the way certainly offers political benefits to the government. In the general election in 2013, when he led the Pakatan campaign, it won more of the popular vote than the UMNO-dominated coalition, Barisan Nasional (BN), though, thanks to gerrymandered constituencies, it won only 40% of parliamentary seats. Yet Pakatan is an unlikely and fractious coalition. One of its members is a conservative Islamist party, appealing to the ethnic-Malay, Muslim majority; another represents mainly the ethnic-Chinese minority; Mr Anwar himself heads a multiracial, secular party. An important factor in keeping these elements together has been Mr Anwar himself.

A former deputy prime minister, he fell out with his mentor, Mahathir Mohamad, during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and emerged as the leading advocate of reformasi—fundamental reform of an ossified, corrupt political system. He is by far the opposition’s best-known and most charismatic figure, despite—indeed, in part because of—his six years in jail for alleged corruption and on an earlier charge of sodomy (later overturned).

His latest conviction, however, is a mixed blessing for the government. It insists the judiciary is independent, and points out that, in this case, the charges were brought by the alleged sexual partner. But conspiracy theorists—a category including virtually every observer of Malaysian politics—will interpret Mr Anwar’s legal travails as politically motivated. After the verdict, he spoke to the judges: “In bowing to the dictates of your political masters, you have become partners in the murder of the judiciary…You chose to remain on the dark side.” They walked out, but Mr Anwar’s supporters at home will think he did no more than state the obvious. Even abroad, where Malaysia is often praised as a model of Muslim-majority democratic moderation, many will be suspicious. Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch (HRW), a monitoring group, called the verdict a “travesty of justice”.

Critics point to many curious aspects of the case. According to research cited by HRW, the law under which Mr Anwar has been convicted has been invoked only seven times since 1938. Mr Anwar was acquitted of this charge in 2012 because DNA evidence had been mishandled, only for the government’s prosecutor to appeal against the decision. So, unfairly or not, the case has harmed the image of Malaysia’s judiciary, and, to the extent that he is seen as implicated in its decisions, of Mr Najib himself.

Already his reputation as a liberal and moderate has been dented by his government’s use of another archaic and draconian law, on sedition, to hound its critics. They include a political cartoonist known as Zunar who was arrested this week, apparently for a tweet critical of the verdict on Mr Anwar. Having promised to repeal the sedition law, Mr Najib in November said it would actually be strengthened. That was seen as a concession to conservatives within UMNO. They present a far greater immediate threat to Mr Najib than does the opposition, especially since they have the support of Dr Mahathir. He vacated the prime minister’s office in 2003 and is now 89, but remains a powerful political force. He has turned against Mr Najib, as he did against his predecessor, Abdullah Badawi—and indeed Mr Anwar before that.

With Mr Anwar behind bars, UMNO hardliners will have less reason to worry about the opposition, and can concentrate their fire on Mr Najib’s leadership. They have been handed a weapon in the troubles surrounding 1MDB, a sovereign-wealth fund, whose board of advisers Mr Najib chairs. It is behind on debt repayments and accused of a woeful lack of transparency. This week a group of Malaysian banks was reported to have threatened it with being called into default if payment is not made this month. Politicians from both the opposition and UMNO have called for investigations into 1MBD. Its troubles might even have an impact on Malaysia’s standing as a sovereign borrower. Last month Fitch, a ratings agency, called it a “source of uncertainty”.

Chameleon karma

Under attack from his own right flank, Mr Najib has little room to make good his promises of political liberalisation. Even economic reforms—where he has a respectable record of, for example, widening the tax base and cutting fuel subsidies—may stall. The most difficult ones require the ending of Malaysia’s rules mandating commercial discrimination in favour of the Malay majority, a system to which many in UMNO are wedded.

So the BN, whose ethnic-Chinese and ethnic-Indian components fared disastrously in 2013, risks becoming a mere shell for an UMNO ever more beholden to Malay-nationalist forces, thus further sharpening a dangerous racial polarisation in Malaysian politics. Mr Anwar, a political chameleon whose real beliefs are sometimes hard to pin down, has many critics, but he could at least credibly lead a coalition that bridges Malaysia’s ethnic divides. That is why his incarceration is a dark day not just for Malaysia’s opposition, but for Mr Najib and the country itself.

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