Monday 9 September 2013

Obama: Syria resolution possible

Source BBC News@ tienganhvui.com




Sergei Lavrov called for Syria to destroy its chemical weapons




US President Barack Obama has said Russia's proposal to put Syria's chemical weapons under international control is a "potential breakthrough".


But Mr Obama said he was sceptical Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would follow through.


Mr Obama also he was pessimistic about the prospect the US Congress would authorise the use of force in Syria.


The US accuses Damascus of war crimes including use of chemical weapons, allegations denied by the regime.


On Monday, Mr Obama gave a series of interviews on US television as he sought to build support for a US military strike among a sceptical Congress and US public.


Congress has begun to debate a resolution authorising him to take military action in Syria, which Mr Obama has said is needed to punish Mr Assad's regime for the use of chemical weapons and to deter it from using them again.


Support for the measure on Capitol Hill has remained low, with more than 230 of the 433 members in the House of Representatives reportedly either opposed to or likely to oppose strikes as of Friday.



Analysis





Damascus knows the struggle for the moment is to sway American public opinion. With that in mind, President Assad, in his interview with CBS, and statements from other Syrian officials, have stressed at least three ways in which a US military strike would backfire.


There is the unspecific warning, if not outright threat, of direct reprisals by Syria, and indirect action by its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq. There is the warning that American action would strengthen rebel factions linked to al-Qaeda, and could even enable them to seize power if the strike were damaging enough. And there is the threat, echoed by Moscow, that any such attack would scupper already-dim chances of a political settlement through peace talks in Geneva.


In reality, much depends on what exactly the Americans intend to do. If their strike is, as Mr Kerry said, "incredibly small", the repercussions might be very limited. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq might fire off some mortars at the enormous US embassy compound in Baghdad, for example. But more serious actions, such as Hezbollah striking at Israel, are unlikely unless the US launches a very major operation indeed.



In addition, polls show Americans remain wary of a strike against Syria, with only one in five believing that a failure to respond to chemical weapons attacks there would embolden other governments, according to an Associated Press poll concluded on Monday.


Mr Obama's remarks came after Russia asked Syria to put its chemical weapons stockpiles under international control and then have them destroyed in an attempt to avoid US military strikes.


Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the offer was made during talks with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Muallem, who welcomed the initiative.


US Secretary of State John Kerry, in Europe to garner support for the military action, inadvertently started the talk of Syria giving up its chemical weapons early on Monday.


When asked at a news conference whether there was anything Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could do to avoid military action, Mr Kerry replied that he could hand over his entire stockpile of chemical weapons within the next week.


US officials subsequently clarified that Mr Kerry was making a "rhetorical argument" rather than a serious offer.


However, Mr Lavrov later revealed in a news conference that he had urged Mr Muallem to "not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on their subsequent destruction".


He said he had also told Mr Muallem that Syria should then fully join the Chemical Weapons Convention.


Mr Muallem told reporters through an interpreter that Syria welcomed the initiative and praised Russia for "attempting to prevent American aggression against our people".


Mr Kerry and Mr Lavrov spoke on the phone after the Russian proposal was put forward, but US officials sounded a cautious note over the plan.




White House spokesman Jay Carney said the US would study Russia's proposals



US allies have also reacted cautiously:



  • UK Minister David Cameron said the destruction of the weapons would be a "huge step forward", but warned that it should not be used as a "distraction tactic"

  • French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called on Mr Assad to make "rapid, serious and verifiable" commitments to the plan

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it was an "interesting proposal" but added that she hoped real action would follow


'Pay the price'

Moscow has been Mr Assad's main international ally throughout Syria's two-and-a-half-year civil war.


Russia has blocked three resolutions against Syria in the UN Security Council, and has dismissed US claims that Mr Assad's forces carried out a chemical attack in Damascus on 21 August, killing 1,429 people.



Syria's chemical weapons



  • CIA believes Syria's chemical weapons can be "delivered by aircraft, ballistic missile, and artillery rockets"

  • Syria believed to possess mustard gas and sarin, and also tried to develop more toxic nerve agents such as VX gas

  • Syria has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) or ratified the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)


Sources: CSIS, RUSI




Mr Assad's government blames the attack on rebels fighting to overthrow him, in a conflict that the UN says has claimed some 100,000 lives.


The UN sent weapons experts into Damascus to investigate the attack.


UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday that if the experts concluded chemicals had been used, he would consider asking the Security Council to approve a "safe zone" in Syria where the weapons could be destroyed.


Meanwhile, the Syrian leader gave an interview to US network PBS in which he warned the US against intervention, saying the Middle East was "on the brink of explosion".


"You're going to pay the price if you're not wise with dealing with terrorists. There are going to be repercussions," he said.


"The government is not the only player in this region. You have different parties, different factions, different ideologies. You have everything in this decision now."


Mr Assad did not explain whether his comment was a threat that Syrian-backed groups such as Hezbollah would launch retaliation, or a warning that strikes would bolster al-Qaeda-linked groups.


He also denied using chemical weapons saying there was "no evidence" to hold his government responsible for the 21 August attack.


Many US politicians and members of the public remain concerned that military action could draw the nation into a prolonged war and spark broader hostilities in the region.


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Đăng ký: Tieng Anh Vui

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