The numbers of badgers in both cull regions has been revised significantly downwards
A pilot badger cull in west Somerset is set to be extended by up to three weeks as marksmen have failed to kill enough badgers to reach their original target.
Sources at Defra say that 850 badgers have been shot in the area over the six-week trial, just over 40% of an initial target of 2,081.
But those sources insist the Somerset cull has proven to be effective.
They say new population data means there are far fewer badgers in the pilot area than originally thought.
The controversial pilot culls set out to study if badgers could be killed safely, effectively and humanely.
The plan was to kill 70% of the badgers in the areas of west Somerset and Gloucestershire by free shooting.
Across both regions this meant around 5,000 badgers were to be killed in total.
Decline in numbers
But Defra sources say that these targets were based on population estimates carried out in 2012 that have proved to be highly inaccurate.
"We have high confidence that between 2012 and 2013, there has been a decline in the badger population in both areas," said a source.
As the cull started, hundreds of hair traps were set so that DNA could be extracted and analysed to give a more up-to-date assessment of badger numbers.
In west Somerset, the population, which had been estimated at 2,400, has now been revised downwards to 1,450. In Gloucestershire, the numbers have been lowered from 3,400 to 2,350.
There are a number of reasons behind the apparent decline according to Defra, including the impact of last winter's bad weather, disease and lack of food.
"There's always a chance of statistical error because these are estimates; they are not absolute."
Extended shoot
As a result, the targets for culling have also been revised downwards to around 2,600 for both areas combined.
To get to 70% in west Somerset, the culling company needed to kill 1,015 badgers. After six weeks of shooting, they achieved 59%.
The culling company is now seeking an extension of its licence for another two to three weeks to raise the number of dead badgers closer to the desired 70% figure.
However, Defra sources believe that even on the lower figures, the cull has been effective.
"This level of culling is a significant culling of the badger population and sufficient to achieve cattle disease benefits at the start of a four-year cull period," the source said.
There was a "possibility" that the company carrying out the Gloucestershire cull will also seek an extension.
Reports in recent days suggested that the cull in west Somerset was in trouble with a Conservative MP admitting it had not worked as well as hoped.
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