Thailand’s protests: Pressing the pause button

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

THE scene in central Bangkok on the morning of December 4th was a stark contrast to the preceding days. The bridges leading to the prime minister’s neogothic offices had been scenes of violent confrontation between anti-government protesters and riot police, peaking on December 2nd. But now “Bangkok’s Berlin Wall”, a formidable concrete and barbed-wire barrier, had vanished. No police or soldiers were in sight. Instead, cleaners piled the detritus of political warfare—stones, sandbags and empty tear-gas canisters—into dustcarts.

It was a similar story at the nearby Democracy Monument, the main base for the would-be revolution that has been trying to overthrow the government of the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, since early November. That was when Ms Yingluck tried to pass an amnesty bill that would have let her older brother (and former prime minister), Thaksin Shinawatra, off charges of corruption and abuse of power, allowing him to return from self-imposed exile in Dubai. The attempt failed after it brought tens of thousands on to the streets, many camping out around the monument, and the Senate rejected the bill. But the protest leaders smelled blood and continued their demonstrations. Yet suddenly the makeshift encampments were gone and volunteers were being handed gloves, cleaning supplies and brooms.

The hasty clean-up was an effort to restore some lustre to the capital in time for the birthday of King Bhumibol Adulyadej on December 5th. The revered but ailing king has turned 86, and his birthday afforded the country a political breathing space. A truce, of sorts, was declared so as not to mar the day. But the protesters, led by a former Democrat Party MP and deputy prime minister, Suthep Thaugsuban, insist they will not simply melt away: they are in for the long haul of ousting the “Thaksin regime” (the divisive Mr Thaksin is widely reckoned to run the government by videoconference from Dubai). The few days of relative calm may be a pause rather than an end to hostilities.

A pause was needed. The protesters claim that theirs was a particularly benign version of civil disobedience. Yet it was almost inevitable that weeks of steadily escalating confrontation would turn bloody. Over the weekend of November 30th-December 1st street battles took place between Mr Suthep’s mob, dressed mainly in black, and the “red shirt” supporters of the Shinawatras. In all, four Thais have been killed and about 100 injured in politically related violence.

And whereas in the previous week the protesters had left the prime minister’s heavily fortified offices well alone, on December 1st some of them started a determined assault on the barricades, even bringing up bulldozers. The police, backed by the army, responded with tear gas. The hooded protesters replied with their own improvised missiles.

The violence was uncomfortably reminiscent of the bloody protests in 2010, in which about 90 people died as the army and police cleared a red-shirt camp in the heart of Bangkok protesting against the (unelected) Democrat Party government. In order to avoid violence on that scale, on December 3rd Ms Yingluck’s government started clearing the barricades. It even let the protesters into the prime minister’s compound so as to claim a “symbolic victory”. These moves were negotiated, apparently, by politicians and the army. They helped to defuse the situation. But it was only a tactical retreat by Ms Yingluck. Elected by a big majority two years ago, she seems determined to stay put.

Both sides have now started to invoke the king in order to bolster their positions. In a televised address Ms Yingluck urged all Thais to unite and show their love for King Bhumibol, a sentiment she doubtless wishes will continue well beyond his birthday.

Mr Suthep, meanwhile, has been calling for a new prime minister to be chosen by the monarch. This is part of his hazy plan for what would happen should his attempted putsch succeed; it also includes a proposal to set up a “people’s council”, formed of “decent men” who would amend the laws to reform the police, the electoral system and much else, all to remove the stain of Mr Thaksin from the body-politic. Eventually, Mr Suthep says there would be elections, ending the role of the people’s council. But he gives no timeline for when that might be.

The government has promised to look at some of these inchoate, anti-democratic and unworkable suggestions. Ms Yingluck has even promised to set up her own “open forum”, consisting of academics, businessmen and protesters, to consider political reform. But to politicise the monarchy further, as Mr Suthep suggests, would be a dangerously retrograde step in a country that has struggled so hard to embed more democratic habits.

Meanwhile, Mr Suthep seems unaware that the severest critic of appointing a prime minister by this method is the king himself. In a public intervention in 2006, when Democrat politicians were urging him to replace Mr Thaksin, who was then prime minister, King Bhumibol said: “Asking for a royally appointed prime minister is undemocratic. It is, pardon me, a mess. It is irrational.” Wise words to remember on his birthday.

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