Japanese politics: Moment of reckoning

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

SHINZO ABE, Japan’s most purposeful prime minister for many years, has two grand ambitions. One is to restore some vim to Japan’s long-stagnant economy. The other is to shed restraints imposed on the country by its post-war constitution. The Japanese public so far seems willing to accept the change involved in pursuing the first aim, but is less amenable to the second. If Mr Abe is not careful, he could find his own enthusiasm for constitutional change upsets his economic reforms.

On his return to power in 2012, his plan was to use the thumping majority his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wields with its coalition partner, New Komeito, to move towards rewriting Article 9 of the constitution, in which Japan renounces the use of war. He was soon obliged to retreat. Then a plan to alter the process by which the constitution may be changed also failed. Now a more modest attempt to reinterpret Article 9 to allow Japan to come to the defence of its allies, notably America, is running into formidable opposition, too.

Many in the LDP worry that the coalition could even break up over the question of whether Japan should have the right to help its allies in the event of attack. Last month a long-awaited report from a panel handpicked by Mr Abe recommended that Japan’s “self-defence forces” (SDF)—as the armed forces are known—should be allowed for the first time to offer limited logistical support to America during military combat, and to shoot down missiles heading for an ally’s territory. Even that was a retreat for Mr Abe. He had wanted Japan to allow the SDF to fight with allies in UN-authorised missions overseas. America strongly backs the limited changes as a way to strengthen the alliance with Japan.

Yet for New Komeito, an avowedly pacifist party, Mr Abe’s intentions already go too far. On May 29th Yoshio Urushibara, a senior New Komeito parliamentarian, voiced the possibility of leaving the coalition (and hence bringing down the government) rather than give in to Mr Abe’s wishes. The LDP was shocked.

New Komeito’s leadership is not the problem. The real blockage is Soka Gakkai, a pacifist Buddhist group that backs New Komeito and opposes Mr Abe’s plan. Little-known outside Japan yet claiming 9m members, the group is an extremely potent electoral machine. Its pacifist members, especially its 3m women, reliably elect hundreds of New Komeito politicians across the country in local and national elections. LDP politicians also rely on Soka Gakkai. Without it, according to an analysis by the Tokyo Foundation, a think-tank, Mr Abe’s party could lose around 100 of its present 294 seats in the lower house of parliament.

Broader public opinion, too, is still largely against Japan helping its allies militarily. A poll last month by Kyodo, a news agency, found that 48% of respondents opposed Japan exercising that right, against 39% who support Mr Abe’s initiative. For Japan’s constitution to be reinterpreted by successive administrations is dangerous, asserts Yumiko Kasanuki, a leader of Soka Gakkai’s women’s group. Rather, she says, Mr Abe should officially revise, not reinterpret, Article 9 by gaining proper democratic consent, meaning a near-impossible two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament. The unspoken threat is that her members will otherwise stop mobilising votes for New Komeito and LDP candidates. New Komeito is particularly worried that a backroom compromise with Mr Abe this year could wound it during next spring’s local elections.

One way out of the impasse, and the focus of much rumour, is for Mr Abe to call a snap election for the lower house of parliament before the spring of 2015. The mere threat of it heaps more pressure on New Komeito. Mr Abe’s popularity should mean a strong result for the LDP, perhaps lessening its reliance on Soka Gakkai, while opposition parties remain in disarray. That in turn could help New Komeito to persuade Soka Gakkai that the public backs Mr Abe’s security agenda, and that it should therefore support him, too.

The North Korea link

Mr Abe is also counting on a possible breakthrough in the tragic story of Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. On May 29th, in the first progress on this issue in many years, Japan and North Korea agreed a deal in which Japan will relax sanctions against the rogue regime in return for a North Korean reinvestigation of the abductions. The issue is an emotional one in Japan; the mere news of the deal is a political victory for Mr Abe, who first shot to prominence in the early 2000s by championing the abductees’ families. This week Japan said that Mr Abe may even visit Pyongyang.

Yet the bold gambit also carries risks. North Korea’s about-turn is chiefly aimed at extracting more aid and trade from Japan. It could also be trying to create tension between America and Japan, says Robert Dujarric, of Temple University in Tokyo. Mr Abe must weigh the diplomatic costs with the very real possibility that not a single abductee will return home; most are thought to have died in North Korea.

Meanwhile, his efforts on the economy are moving into their most important stage yet. The LDP last month published a much-anticipated list of reforms that could do much to revive the economy. The government is to unveil a new growth strategy later this month. Any political upheaval could affect what seems to be a real chance of implementing economic change. Mr Abe may soon be forced to decide what his true priority is.

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