Japan’s security: Clear and present dangers

Nguồn tin: nguontinviet.com

No Abeliever, she

IT TOOK a war of attrition for Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, to win agreement to end a long-standing ban on Japanese troops coming to the aid of allies. But in the end, after months of wrangling, he managed to win the consent of his coalition partner, New Komeito, which had strongly opposed the change.

On July 1st the cabinet approved a reinterpretation of the constitution, marking a milestone in Japan’s post-war security policy. Article Nine of the 67-year-old document stipulates that Japan forever renounces war as a sovereign right. But Mr Abe’s change means that Japan’s Self-Defence Forces (SDF) will for the first time be permitted to participate in “collective self-defence”—if certain conditions are met.

Once the necessary legislative amendments are passed, Japan will be able to come to the aid of an ally, such as America or Australia—but only if Japan itself is under threat. This week Mr Abe promised that American-led combat missions in far-flung places remained off-limits.

Mr Abe had wished to rewrite Article Nine altogether, but that was quickly ruled out. Changing the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament, which his government does not have. A popular referendum is also required, and many Japanese treasure their pacifist principles.

Nonetheless, the changes promise to be far-reaching. Mr Abe argued that Japan’s defence arrangements are out of date as North Korea develops a nuclear-tipped missile capability and China’s military strength grows, challenging Japanese control of the Senkaku islands, which China claims as the Diaoyus. The United States, Japan’s partner in fending off such threats, this week warmly welcomed the reinterpretation. The two countries are preparing to revamp their joint defence guidelines for the first time in 17 years.

The reinterpretation was not quite as radical as some Americans had hoped for, says James Schoff, a former Pentagon official, but it will pave the way for the two armed forces to plan, train and operate more seamlessly. Though they have never fired a shot in anger, the SDF are among the world’s most sophisticated armed forces. They will now have clear permission to shoot down a North Korean missile heading for America, or to aid an American ship under attack in waters near Japan. They will also have the freedom to offer Americans logistical support, including ammunition, if Japan comes under threat.

Separately, the SDF will be allowed to use weapons in UN-approved peace operations. The humiliation of Australian troops having to protect Japanese peacekeepers in Iraq still rankles. The main concession that New Komeito won was that the SDF will still be barred from supplying soldiers engaged in actual combat. The change also opens the way for Japan to take forceful action in the event of China landing personnel on the Senkaku islands. At the moment it is unclear whether the SDF, rather than the coastguard, may repel such a “grey zone” incursion.

It is not only China which has protested at Mr Abe’s changes. Despite the continued restrictions, for many Japanese the cabinet’s decision is deeply troubling. In recent months public opinion has turned further against notions of collective self-defence. Many see in all this the possible rebirth of Japanese militarism. Certainly opponents resent the lack of public consultation on the matter. Two days before the cabinet’s announcement, a man set himself on fire in front of Tokyo’s Shinjuku train station in protest; he survived, badly burnt. On July 1st thousands crowded outside the prime minister’s residence shouting anti-war slogans. New Komeito faces a backlash from its pacifist supporters.

It is against this backdrop that the government must now push through over ten amendments to existing laws in order to implement the cabinet’s decision. It could take years. Mr Abe’s staff are optimistic that Japan will move towards a fuller exercise of the right to collective self-defence. But what they at first saw as a modest step will continue to be a hard slog.

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