08:39
Tieng Anh Vui
ON THE billboards of every National Party candidate in New Zealand’s general election on September 20th looms a second face: John Key’s. No one can miss the point that the prime minister is the party’s main asset.
With his one-of-us manner, free of airs or graces, Mr Key is a rare incumbent who is popular—more so, indeed, than his National Party or any other leader. In an opinion poll taken between August 30th and September 3rd, 48% of those asked approved of him, compared with the Labour leader, David Cunliffe, who polled just 14%. If National wins, it will be Mr Key’s third term as prime minister.
The centre-right National Party is running on its record of solid economic growth, sound finances and completing free-trade agreements supposed to help smaller businesses. It promises modest tax cuts—though not immediately—for low- and middle-income New Zealanders. Its welfare policies for children in need and its assistance for first-time homebuyers are decidedly centrist.
The Labour Party plans to introduce a capital-gains tax on property, but not on the family home. It is concerned about growing inequality and has ideas for boosting the savings rate. But earlier infighting did not help Labour’s image. As for Mr Cunliffe, he earned barroom derision for his apology for “being a man” (on the basis that males are responsible for most sexual abuse and violence at home).
Even so, National is not home and dry. Last month a book, “Dirty Politics”, threatened to derail its campaign. Based on hacked e-mails from a blogger with links to the National Party, it alleged a dirty-tricks operation run out of the prime minister’s office. Judith Collins, the justice minister, was implicated and had to resign. Separately, Kim Dotcom, an internet entrepreneur or hacker (take your pick) who is wanted in America on copyright charges, is financing a political party and, assisted by Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, promises to drop a bombshell before the election that will harm National.
Even without such distractions, the National Party is unlikely to win enough seats to govern alone. Since the introduction of a mixed-member proportional voting system in 1996, no party has managed that. This time, eight parties have a chance of being represented in Parliament. Winston Peters, of the populist NZ First, has played kingmaker in the past. He is likely to support the party with the biggest vote. As The Economist went to press the Greens, Labour’s natural ally, were considering support for the National Party, so badly is Labour faring.
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