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Tieng Anh Vui
VARANASI, a city of 1.5m by the Ganges river some 800km (500 miles) south-east of Delhi, offers much for gawping visitors. A dusk boat ride is accompanied by near naked sadhus splashing in the sacred, filthy water. Funeral pyres crackle on the riverbank. Under a fat moon, scholars of Sanskrit put on a show with bells and oil lamps, a celebration of the river considered most holy by Hindus.
The city is about to be crammed with even more visitors, as it becomes the main spectacle of India’s mammoth general election. Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is running to be Varanasi’s MP. That has drawn prominent opponents, notably Arvind Kejriwal, the media-hungry leader of an upstart anti-corruption outfit known as the Aam Aadmi, or Common Man, Party. Even Priyanka Gandhi, of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that dominates the ruling Congress party, has had to deny that she too planned to join the fray (the constituency of Amethi, the Gandhi family’s seat of power, is not far away).
Halfway through the extended nine-stage election, the BJP has most momentum. Its supporters expect the contest in Varanasi to be Mr Modi’s coronation. Ballots have so far been cast in 25 states, including Delhi, Kerala, parts of Uttar Pradesh (UP), where Varanasi is located, and much of the north-east. High turnout, about 70%, is probably a sign of voters eager to boot out the incumbent, Congress. Opinion polls also cheer the opposition. One this week suggested the BJP and its closest allies—the National Democratic Alliance—could get an outright majority, over 272 of parliament’s 543 seats. That would be historic, letting Mr Modi rule without needing wider coalition partners.
Take the strongest predictions with a pinch of salt. Congress at times outperforms such surveys because its core supporters—the poor, the rural and Muslims—are likelier than richer ones to queue in the blazing sun and actually vote. Still, the ruling party’s fortunes are certainly down. Its latest embarrassment is a book on the “accidental” prime minister of ten years, Manmohan Singh, by his ex-spokesman. It spells out how Sonia Gandhi, Congress’s president, kept real political power, leaving Mr Singh unable to appoint or sack ministers or implement policy. No wonder voters crave stronger leadership.
Varanasi will probably bring more cheer to Mr Modi (by the odd rules of Indian democracy he is also standing in his home state of Gujarat). One prominent BJP figure in the city crows that “we’ve already won, we’re fighting for the margin of victory”. A local leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) says his followers, enthused by Mr Modi, are campaigning too: the Hindu-nationalist outfit that long pretended it was just a social movement is now openly political.
Anything less than a landslide in Varanasi would thus be a poor result. The BJP won in 2009, the last election, and triumphs in local polls. Rival candidates, who have strong pull with local caste groups, respond mostly with bravado. Ajai Rai, Congress’s man, says he has a better development record than Mr Modi, telling the “divisive” chief minister of Gujarat that he is unwelcome in a city known for good Hindu-Muslim relations. But unless he, Mr Kejriwal and several others somehow unite against the BJP man, the only real question is who claims second place.
More uncertain is how the BJP fares beyond the city limits. Eastern UP, heavily populated by poor, caste-obsessed farmers, is a region where local parties dominate. Mr Modi’s presence in Varanasi, and his rallies of hundreds of thousands, could perhaps help to win a few more seats nearby, necessary if the BJP is to fulfil the more excitable poll predictions. Mr Modi’s party needs around half the 80 seats in the state (plus 20 from nearby Bihar), a big leap from its previous haul of ten.
The problem for the BJP is converting excitement for Mr Modi as a prime minister to votes for a local candidate. Instead one of two big local parties is likely to do better in rural areas. The Bahujan Samaj Party has a strong core of supporters among the dalits (formerly known as “untouchables”) who look loyal to their leader, Mayawati. The other one, the Samajwadi Party, runs the state of UP and draws on the sizeable Muslim vote and others. The two dominate the state, municipal and village administrations so have advantages of patronage and strong organisation.
Mr Modi’s response is to rely on a troubling figure, an acolyte and former minister from Gujarat, Amit Shah. A friend from early days in the RSS, he faces murder charges over a case in Gujarat. He has just been banned from public campaigning by the Election Commission for telling Hindus in Muzaffarnagar, in western UP, before polling last week, to use their votes to take “revenge”. That sounded inflammatory coming after Hindu-Muslim riots last September that killed over 40 people.
The BJP has a threefold strategy. To stir up Hindu feeling where Muslims are more numerous and voters identify by religion. Elsewhere, as in the east of the state, hardline Hindu rhetoric is bringing weaker returns, for example as interest in the rebuilding of the Ram temple at Ayodhya wanes. Instead the BJP targets groups among the Hindus, reaching beyond traditional high castes (Brahmin, Rajput and others) to win the backing of the “Other Backward Class” category. That Mr Modi is himself an OBC “is a huge factor” says a party strategist in Varanasi.
Finally, by talking up the development successes of Gujarat, promising better roads, electricity and new jobs, the BJP hopes to win over younger, more literate and job-hungry voters. Opponents grumble that Mr Modi’s promises are being oversold, a cult of personality is rising, even that portions of the press have been bought. “He is more detergent powder than a political man,” sniffs an elderly journalist in Varanasi. But even the disapproving admit Mr Modi is a strong campaigner. His face is on billboards all over Varanasi—one more thing for visitors to gawp at.
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